Bearish bias, but don’t chase shorts. If you’re not in a trade, wait.

Three hours, three lower lows: 68073 → 67932 → 67824.
Each time the lows get swept, even more traders go long.
Both sides are adding to their derivatives positions, while U.S. spot buyers are quietly stepping away. The range is still intact, but pressure on the lower boundary is mounting.
📍 What just happened
· Open interest rose by +428 coins over the past hour instead of falling—more likely fresh shorts piling in than longs capitulating
· The long account ratio rose from 3.12→3.15, a new high for today; whale accounts rose from 3.60→3.64

📊 Positioning
· After flipping long at 68.4k, the most active HL whale has started trimming longs and adding ETH shorts
· Only a handful of longs were liquidated. Longs keep adding in layers, so Monday may bring another round of forced liquidations.

🎯 Three possible scenarios
1️⃣ Price chops between 67449–68833 over the weekend, waiting on U.S. stocks and ETFs on Monday (still the most likely scenario, but the lower boundary is under increasing pressure)
2️⃣ A 1H close below the low → crowded longs hit their stops in a cascade; watch the 64-65k area
3️⃣ Reclaim 68833 and spot turns positive → retest 69110/70188, still treating it as a relief bounce