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Someone in the group said: $SPCX fell from 147 to 137. Cheap enough, right?
I replied: Cheap isn't a reason; the position is.
The 11-12 22:00 candle surged to 147.60 on 6.34 million contracts, then closed at 144.81.
A two-dollar upper wick—that wasn't buying pressure; it was sell orders lining up at the door.
Then they asked: It's at 136.79 now. Can I buy in?
I answered: First look at 11-13 22:00: 6.45 million contracts pushed it to 142.18, and it closed at 140.10.
It surged even harder than the day before, then came crashing back down on even higher volume.
The people carrying it up had changed; they weren't lifting it any higher.
It's at 136.79 now, with the 136.64 low right underfoot and the moving average at 139.55 weighing on it.
Short now? Just 0.15 above the low—that's an ugly risk-reward.
I'll place an order at 139.5 and wait for a bounce; if it stalls, I'll short, with a stop at 140.5.
Target: 136.64, 2.9x.
(Not investment advice; you are responsible for your own gains and losses)