From 83.88 down to 78.42—is this a trend or just excess being squeezed out?

I laid out 48 candles and counted them three times.
1. 83.88 was the high at 11-12 10:00, and it hasn't been touched since.
2. Three dump candles, each with volume more than 2.4 times the average.
3. The nastiest one was at 11-13 11:00: 558,000 contracts, knocking off 1.7.
4. Now at 78.42, just 1.28 away from 77.14.
5. Average volume is 204,000; this morning's 08:00 candle was down to just 54,000. The crowd is gone.
Put all five together, and there's only one direction: down.
But shorting right above 77.14 gives you less than 1:1 odds—that's just giving money away.
I'll wait for a rebound; if it can't get past the 79.5 area, I'll short, with a stop at 80.30.
First target 78.16, more aggressively 77.14, for 2.9x.
If it gets back above 80.51, I'll admit I'm wrong. Don't get emotionally attached to the price.
(Not investment advice. Trade at your own risk.)