#AnthropicIPO六倍超额认购 Anthropic will see a divergent performance after going public, with a “rapid short-term surge followed by sharp mid-term volatility,” rather than sustained one-way strength.

🚀 In the early days after listing: a certain surge

1. Sixfold oversubscription was driven entirely by large institutional orders. Underwriters are already considering pushing the offering price above the $70–$78 range, with the valuation potentially soaring to $1.5 trillion.

2. It will likely be added to six major mainstream indexes within 5–15 days of listing, triggering nearly $20 billion in mandatory passive fund buying. Its performance will directly replicate this year’s SpaceX surge playbook.

3. Retail investors’ net buying on the first day is expected to reach $250 million, double SpaceX’s previous record, further fueling short-term sentiment.

⚠️ After the mid-term: high valuation will inevitably bring sharp volatility

1. Its current $1.4 trillion valuation essentially discounts $685 billion in revenue in 2030 in advance, implying 150-fold growth over five years—a feat without precedent in business history.

2. It won’t achieve positive free cash flow until 2030. Annual computing capacity expenditures of tens of billions of dollars are a long-term, heavy burden, and the $90 billion fundraising will only provide short-term relief.

3. Shares allocated strategically to the seven major tech giants have no lockup restrictions, so large-scale selling could emerge at any time once the stock surges.

Simply put, it could surge sharply in its first half-month after listing, buoyed by passive index funds and sentiment. But after the rally, the huge gap between its high valuation and fundamentals will inevitably drag the stock into wide fluctuations. #WCTCS9