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The market structure has clearly shifted from a bullish consolidation phase to a strong bearish downtrend; after failing to sustain above the $9.98 average price and rejecting the $10.05 local top, the price broke down aggressively, creating a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, currently finding temporary support near $8.58.

The recent K-lines are predominantly red, indicating strong selling pressure, with a notable long bearish candle that pierced through the lower Bollinger Band ($8.67), followed by small indecision dojis and a current slight recovery attempt; the price is currently trading below the middle band ($9.18) and the moving averages (MA5 at $17.00K volume context suggests current volume is average compared to the peak sell-off), while the MACD remains in negative territory with the histogram showing bearish momentum, though the lines are flattening.

The plan is to look for a short opportunity on a retracement to the resistance zone or a breakdown continuation if support fails.

I predict a brief relief bounce or sideways movement towards the $8.90-$9.00 region (testing the breakdown level and MA5) before the bearish trend resumes, targeting the recent low of $8.58 and potentially lower if the $8.40 support breaks.

What trade plan I follow and why

I will follow a trend-following short setup because the broader structure is bearish, the MACD is below the zero line, and the price is rejected by the upper Bollinger bands, making long positions risky until a clear reversal pattern forms.

When I start my trade

I will initiate a short trade if the price retests the $8.90-$9.00 area and shows rejection (wicking or a bearish engulfing candle), or if the price breaks below $8.58 with high volume.

The chart shows a Bearish Engulfing pattern followed by a Falling Three Methods continuation, where the large red candle is followed by small consolidation candles (the recent green/red dojis) that are trapped within the range of the previous large drop, signaling a continuation of the downtrend.

Which trade setup is better for this time

Given the sharp drop and the current low volatility consolidation , a Bearish Flag or Pennant setup is the most applicable, as the price is consolidating after a steep drop; a Gartley pattern is not clearly formed yet, a simple Breakout-Retest setup is the most reliable here.

The chart is Bearish in the short term; the price is struggling to reclaim the middle Bollinger Band, and the MACD indicates bearish dominance, so the best strategy is to Short on Rallies (sell high) rather than buying the dip until a clear bullish divergence or a break above $9.18 occurs.