$NVDA

‌
Looking at the 1-hour timeframe, NVDA has shifted from a bearish market structure into a potential short-term accumulation or corrective phase. The price previously established a clear downtrend, marked by lower highs and lower lows, but the recent action shows a structural shift where the price has stabilized and is attempting to form a base around the 165-168 range, currently trading at 164.21 in pre-market, which is a significant drop from the previous close of 168.79.

The current 1-hour chart reveals a consolidation pattern with a slight bearish tilt due to the pre-market gap down. The price is currently testing the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. We see a series of small-bodied candles with wicks on both sides, indicating indecision and a battle between buyers and sellers. The gap down to 164.21 puts the price below the short-term moving averages (MA5 at 175.50 and MA10 at 173.29), which are acting as immediate dynamic resistance, while the longer-term MAs (MA200 at 212.73) remain far overhead, confirming the broader bearish context.

My plan is to observe the reaction at the current pre-market level (164.21). If the price holds above the recent swing low of 165.89 (which it is currently below in pre-market, suggesting weakness), I would look for a reversal signal. However, given the gap down, I will wait for the first 15-minute candle after the market opens to see if the 164 level acts as support. If it breaks below 164, I will look for a short entry targeting the 160 psychological level. If it reclaims 168, I would consider a long scalp towards 173.

I predict that NVDA will experience high volatility at the open due to the pre-market drop of -5.54%. The immediate trend is bearish, and the price is likely to test the 160-162 support zone. If that zone holds, we could see a bounce back towards the 168-170 resistance. However, the MACD on the 1-hour chart is showing a bearish crossover (DIF -3.13 below DEA -4.44), which supports the bearish bias for the near term.

I am following a Breakout/Rejection Strategy at the key support level of 164. Why? Because the pre-market gap down creates a "liquidity void," and the price is currently sitting at the lower end of a recent range. The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable if we wait for confirmation. I will not trade blindly at the open; I will wait for the price to either reclaim the 165.89 level (long) or break below 164 with volume (short).

I will start my trade after the first 15-30 minutes of the market open (9:45 AM EST). This allows the initial pre-market volatility to settle and confirms whether the 164 level acts as a floor or a trapdoor. I will look for a confirmed candle close above the 5-period EMA on the 5-minute chart for a long, or a bearish engulfing candle for a short.

Currently, I am observing a Doji/Spinning Top formation in the pre-market, which indicates extreme indecision. The previous candles on the 1-hour chart show a Bullish Harami attempt (small green candle inside a large red candle) near the 165.89 low, but the current pre-market gap down invalidates this pattern. I am looking for a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing at the 160 level to confirm a reversal.

Bearish Bias in the Short Term. The pre-market drop of -5.54% and the price being below the short-term MAs (MA5/MA10) suggest further downside pressure. The MACD is also bearish. I will remain cautious and wait for the market open to confirm if 164 holds. If it breaks, I will short; if it holds and reclaims 168, I will flip long. Do not catch a falling knife; wait for confirmation.