$XLM

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The asset XLM/USDT has recently shifted market structure from a strong bullish impulse to a corrective phase. After breaking out and establishing a local high at 0.15269, the price failed to sustain higher highs, leading to a breakdown below the 0.14802 middle Bollinger Band. This structural shift indicates that sellers have temporarily taken control, transitioning the market from a trending environment into a bearish retracement or consolidation phase.

While not a perfect textbook Gartley, the price action resembles the early stages of a "Gartley" harmonic structure (specifically the X-A-B-C-D leg formation). The push up to 0.15269 acts as the peak (A/B), and the subsequent pullback is forming the "C" leg. Traders watching harmonic patterns would look for a completion point (D) around the 0.14376 region (the recent swing low), which aligns with the lower Bollinger Band, to potentially re-enter long positions.

The 1-hour K-lines reveal a clear "lower highs" pattern following the peak. The price is currently trading around 0.14673, sitting just below the middle Bollinger Band, which suggests a bearish bias in the short term. The MACD indicator is also confirming this weakness; the DIF (-0.00031) and DEA (-0.00006) are below the zero line, and the histogram is printing red, indicating that momentum remains with the bears.

The recent price action is characterized by a series of small-bodied candles (indecision) followed by red candles, briefly touching the lower Bollinger Band. The current candle is a small green (bullish) reversal candle, attempting to hold support. However, without a strong volume spike (Volume is at 25.97K), this is likely just a "dead cat bounce" rather than a confirmed reversal.

I predict XLM will likely continue to dip toward the lower support zone near 0.14376 or the lower Bollinger Band (LB) at 0.14444. If this support holds, we could see a short-term relief rally back to the middle band (0.14802). If it breaks below 0.1444, the next stop is likely a further breakdown toward 0.14040. The overall bias is currently bearish to neutral.

What Trade Plan I Follow and Why❓️

I am following a "Wait and See" / Short-biased strategy. Why? Because the MACD is in a bearish crossover below zero, and the price is trading under the middle Bollinger Band. I do not want to catch a falling knife without confirmation.

When I Start My Trade❓️

I will only enter a trade if the price rejects clearly from the 0.1444 support zone with a bullish engulfing candle, or if it breaks down below 0.1444 with strong volume, signaling a short entry. For now, I am waiting for the current 1-hour candle to close to confirm whether it can hold above 0.1467.

The market is currently in a corrective pullback. While the overall trend (from the prior rally) was bullish, the short-term momentum is bearish. The best trade setup is to wait for a test of the lower support (0.1444-0.1437) for a potential long swing, or short a confirmed breakdown. Do not buy at current levels without a clear candlestick confirmation.