Gold moved above $3,960 per ounce a few days ago, only to get pushed back down. That shows $3,960 is a key short-term resistance level. A move like this, where prices spike and then retreat, often takes more than one attempt to play out: as soon as the price gets above $3,960, profit-takers and short-term bears start stepping in. The resulting upper wick shows that selling pressure is significant, so whether the price can hold above $3,960 matters more than simply touching it.

BTC tends to go through a period of sideways trading before each halving, as history shows. In the months leading up to the 2016 and 2020 halvings, BTC saw volatility contract, trading volume decline, and prices repeatedly swing within a range as investors waited for the halving narrative to play out. For gold, I’m watching not the intraday moves but whether the support zone holds: if the pullback stays above it, the bullish structure remains intact; if it breaks, this was a false breakout. Put simply, if the lower edge of the support zone gives way and the rebound fails to reclaim it, the setup shifts from a “retest confirmation” to a “failed breakout.”

The logic behind ZK proofs—privacy plus scalability—also applies to precious metals pricing. Zero-knowledge proofs can verify information without exposing the underlying data, protecting privacy while increasing throughput. And as on-chain transparency improves, opaque premiums in over-the-counter markets will eventually be squeezed out. Some tokenized gold products have already brought inventory proofs, real-time subscriptions and redemptions, and trade data on-chain, making bid-ask spreads and physical premiums easier to track. As information asymmetry declines, the premium space sustained by opacity in OTC markets will shrink. Let’s check back next week to see if this thesis holds.