#美国10月PPI即将出炉 #每周来晒 Inflation through the roof, but rate hikes are already fully priced in: PPI is a blank shot

Tomorrow night at 21:30, the U.S. October PPI. The market expects the year-over-year rate to rise from 6.3% to 6.6%, marking its biggest increase since December 2022, while the seasonally adjusted month-over-month rate falls from 1.3% to 0.4%.

The year-over-year figure alone is certainly alarming. But break it down, and the year-over-year and month-over-month numbers are at odds. September's PPI surged because of energy: energy PPI rose 10.8% in a single month, and gasoline rose 20.3%. But in October, Brent fell from a high of $117.55 to $92.20, a drop of more than 20%. The year-over-year figure is lifted by the base effect; month over month shows the actual marginal change—the headline is hot, but the core is cooling.

More importantly, a December rate hike is already 100% priced in. After October CPI came in, CME showed an 88.4% probability of a 25bp hike in December and an 11.6% probability of a 50bp hike, for a total of 100%; the probability of no change has been completely priced out.
So even if PPI exceeds expectations again, it can't add new fuel for “one more rate hike in December”—the ammunition has already been spent.

And the timing makes it almost irrelevant: the meeting is on December 8–9, with the decision at 03:00 Beijing time on December 10. November CPI won't be released until December 10, the day after the decision. The Fed won't have it when it meets.

So PPI can't determine what happens in December; it can only determine “how many hikes are left.” Deutsche Bank has already revised its forecast to 25bp hikes in December, January, and March, pushing the terminal rate to 4.50%–4.75%, and even not ruling out a direct 50bp hike in December.

Three scenarios: month over month ≥0.6%, the tail risk of a 50bp hike rises, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gives back that big bullish candle, and BTC directly tests 70,000;
month over month 0.3%–0.5%, in line with expectations, brings a volatility spike, with direction returning to tech companies' own earnings;
month over month ≤0.2%, the market starts trading the “terminal rate,” growth stocks have the most upside, but BTC still needs ETF net inflows to turn positive.

Can easing inflation trigger a rally?
Yes, but this PPI report alone can't do it. The December hike will still happen; we have to wait for November CPI to confirm the trend and the January meeting to validate the terminal rate. This is a repricing of expectations, not a policy pivot.

Don't bet on a single data release; wait for month over month to tell the truth.