#USOctoberPPIComingSoon

Why Tomorrow’s U.S. October PPI

Report Is a Make-or-Break Moment for Crypto and Stocks.

On Friday, November 13, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the October Producer Price Index (PPI). While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) grabs mainstream headlines, institutional traders and Federal Reserve policymakers watch PPI just as closely—because it measures upstream inflation at the wholesale level before those costs reach everyday consumers.

With the crypto market currently navigating heightened volatility—Bitcoin recently testing lows near $73,500–$75,000 following a hotter-than-expected October CPI print—tomorrow’s PPI data could dictate market direction heading into December.

What the Numbers Say Heading Into Friday

🔹️ Monthly Headline PPI: Economists forecast a 0.4% month-over-month increase (cooling from September’s sharp 1.3% surge).
🔹️Core PPI (excluding food & energy): Expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.7% in September.
🔹️Annualized Trend: Consensus estimates point toward a 6.6% year-over-year rise, up from September’s 6.3% (the highest annual pace since late 2022).

Answering the Market’s Two Big Questions.

1. If PPI comes in higher than expected, will crypto and U.S. stocks come under pressure?

Yes—likely sharply in the short term. Markets are already pricing in roughly an 81% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the December 9 FOMC meeting, with some Fed officials even floating a 50 bps move if price pressures remain stubborn. A hot PPI print confirms that businesses are still facing rising input costs, which will eventually pass through to consumers. That scenario strengthens the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and pushes Treasury yields higher—draining liquidity from risk assets like tech stocks, Bitcoin, and altcoins.

2. If inflation cools, could the market rebound?

Yes—expect an immediate relief rally. Because sentiment in crypto is currently sitting in "Fear" territory (with the Fear & Greed Index hovering near 29 and major altcoins oversold), positioning is heavily skewed defensive. If both headline and core PPI come in at or below consensus (0.4% and 0.3% MoM, respectively), it signals that September’s spike was temporary. Easing hawkish pressure on the Fed would weaken the dollar, trigger short-covering across equities and crypto, and give Bitcoin a clear runway to reclaim key resistance levels around $77,000+.

🔍 Key Consensus Numbers to Watch:
• Headline PPI (MoM): 0.4% forecast (vs. 1.3% prior)
• Core PPI (MoM): 0.3% forecast (vs. 0.7% prior)
• Headline PPI (YoY): 6.6% forecast (vs. 6.3% prior)

💡 Answering the Big Questions for Crypto & Stocks:

1️⃣ What if PPI comes in HOT (>0.4% MoM)?
Expect immediate downward pressure on both U.S. equities and crypto. Markets are already pricing in ~80%+ odds of a December Fed rate hike. Sticky producer costs will push the DXY and bond yields higher, tightening liquidity and forcing BTC to retest lower support zones around $73.5K.

2️⃣ What if inflation COOLS (≤0.3% MoM)?
A strong relief rebound is very likely. With market sentiment sitting in "Fear" and sellers crowded, softer upstream inflation takes pressure off the Fed. A cooling print could spark a sharp short squeeze, helping BTC reclaim $77K+ and giving oversold altcoins room to breathe.

🎯 My Strategy: Keep leverage low ahead of the 8:30 AM ET print—let the initial volatility wick play out before chasing the move!

My call: Short-term relief rebound to $76,800 📈
​BTC (~$73.7K) has already priced in a lot of fear after this week's hot CPI. As long as tomorrow's monthly PPI cools down toward the 0.4% consensus (vs. September's 1.3% spike), sellers are overcrowded and we should get a clean short squeeze back above $76.5K.
​Only flipping bearish toward $71K if headline MoM prints 0.6%+ and puts a 50 bps December Fed hike back on the table. Watching the 8:30 AM ET wick before entering! 🎯
#每周来晒 #美国10月PPI即将出炉