$NAS100

‌
Looking at the 1h chart, the market structure has clearly shifted bearish, breaking down from the previous highs near 28,591.79 and creating a series of lower highs and lower lows. This downward momentum is imposing a bearish pressure across lower timeframes, invalidating any immediate bullish Gartley or harmonic reversal patterns that might have been forming near the top; instead, we are seeing a potential bearish continuation setup as the price tests structural support zones.

On the 5m and 15m charts, the K-lines are printing a series of red bearish candles, indicating strong intraday selling pressure. The 15m chart shows a brief consolidation phase where we are seeing Doji and Spinning Top candlestick patterns forming right around the 28,120 level, which briefly touches the lower Bollinger Band (LB: 28,082.01). These patterns suggest indecision and a potential short-term pause in the downtrend, but the overall structure remains heavy.

My prediction is that the price will attempt a minor retracement or consolidation toward the 15m WMA10 (around 28,148) before resuming the downward trend. The MACD on the 15m is still negative (DIF: -38.66), confirming bearish momentum, though the histogram is flattening, suggesting a potential relief rally is imminent. My trade plan is to follow a "Sell the Rally" strategy. I will look for short entries if the price bounces back to the 28,150–28,160 resistance zone (confluence of the 15m WMA10 and 5m upper bands) and rejects it.

I will start my trade once I see a clear bearish rejection signal (like a bearish engulfing or a shooting star candle) on the 5m chart at the 28,150 level. I choose this entry because it aligns with the prevailing 1h bearish structure and allows for a tight stop-loss above the 15m WMA20 (28,160), providing a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. My initial target will be the recent low of 28,101.73, with a secondary target near the 1h lower band at 27,996.

The NAS100 is currently in a bearish corrective phase. While short-term consolidation is likely, the trend remains down. Verdict: Bearish. Wait for a retracement to the 28,150 level to initiate short positions, avoiding longs until the price reclaims the 1h WMA20 (28,267).#USJoblessClaimsTonight