$XAUT

‌#USOctoberPPIComingSoon

Looking at the 1H chart, the overall structure remains bearish as price trades below the WMA20 and the midline of the Bollinger Bands, but on the 30M and 5M charts, we are seeing a potential market structure shift from bearish to consolidation as the selling momentum stalls near the 3,968–3,974 support zone, forming a potential base for a reversal.

🟢In a Gartley Point of View:

While a textbook Gartley is not perfectly clear, if we map the recent price swings on the 5M and 30M charts, the recent drop to 3,968.71 acts as a potential Point D (the completion of the CD leg) of a bullish Gartley pattern. The XA leg started from the 4,047 high, and the AB=CD structure aligns with the current support zone. The 5M chart shows the final leg down is losing momentum, suggesting Point D is established. According to Gartley logic, a valid Point D should trigger a reversal, with the first target being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the CD leg (around 3,983) and the second target at the 61.8% retracement (around 3,992). My trade plan follows this Gartley viewpoint because the risk-to-reward is optimal—entering near the D point with a stop-loss below the recent swing low (3,968) and targeting the Fibonacci retracement levels, making it a high-probability harmonic setup despite the broader 1H bearish trend.

The 1H K-lines show a strong bearish trend with lower highs, but the most recent candles are showing long lower wicks (pin bars) rejecting lower prices, indicating buyers are stepping in; the 30M chart shows a consolidation phase with the MACD histogram flattening out, hinting that the bearish momentum is fading.

My plan is to look for a long (buy) scalp on the 5M timeframe, entering near the current price of 3,974.98, with a stop-loss just below the recent swing low of 3,968.71. My first take-profit will be the 30M WMA20 level around 3,983, and a secondary target at the 1H Bollinger midline near 3,992.

I predict a short-term bounce (mean reversion) back up to the 3,983–3,992 resistance zone, as the 5M MACD is attempting to cross bullishly and the price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting an oversold bounce is imminent.

🔴What Trade Plan I Follow and Why❓️

I am following a counter-trend scalp strategy. I am choosing this because the 1H trend is still down, so I don't want to hold a long position too long; however, the 5M and 30M indicators (MACD divergence potential and price sitting at the lower band) suggest the immediate downside is limited, offering a high risk-to-reward ratio for a quick bounce.

🔴When I Start My Trade❓️

I will start the trade immediately as the current 5M candle closes above the 3,973 level, confirming that the support at 3,968 is holding.

I am looking for a Bullish Harami or a Morning Star formation on the 5M chart to confirm entry; currently, the recent 5M candles are small-bodied dojis, indicating indecision, so I need one strong green candle to confirm the reversal.

The market is in a Bearish Consolidation phase with a high probability of a short-term Oversold Bounce. I will execute a Short-Term Long position with tight risk management, targeting the 3,983 level, but I will remain cautious and exit immediately if price breaks below 3,968.