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U.S. inflation has taught the market another lesson: don't celebrate too soon!
The latest October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, above expectations of 0.3%; core CPI rose 0.3%, also exceeding expectations of 0.2%. This means our old friend inflation hasn't moved out—in fact, it's starting to overstay its welcome.
What makes things even harder for the Fed is that core inflation has risen 0.3% for three consecutive months. This isn't just the occasional sneeze; it looks more like a recurring cold.
The market had been hoping the Fed would gradually turn dovish, but now Powell's gentle approach may be temporarily off the table. Expectations for a December rate hike have risen sharply, and some traders have even begun discussing the possibility of a 50-basis-point hike.
If rates keep rising, U.S. stock valuations could come under pressure, BTC could face a test from tighter liquidity, and gold would have to contend with the dual pressures of the dollar and real interest rates.
In short: the rate-cut camp was just getting ready to pop champagne, while the rate-hike camp has already brought out the ice bucket!
Of course, CPI isn't a Fed decision; employment, inflation expectations, and energy prices will still be key going forward. The most important thing for investors is not to guess the direction, but to manage their positions. #每周来晒 and #美国10月CPI全面超预期 $AMD