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What may really be keeping markets up at night is not a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike, but inflation’s refusal to come down.
U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month over month in October, holding at that pace for three consecutive months. It may seem like just 0.3%, but if that pace persists, inflation will clearly remain some distance from the Fed’s 2% target.
More importantly, core inflation excludes food and energy prices, helping gauge more fundamental price pressures. Its failure to cool meaningfully suggests the problem may be about more than just rising oil prices.
If inflation remains stubborn, the Fed may be forced to keep interest rates high or even tighten policy further.
That is what markets are really worried about: rate hikes can be priced in, but high rates for a prolonged period could change the entire asset-pricing system.
BTC needs liquidity, U.S. stocks need low discount rates, and gold faces pressure from real interest rates.
Markets fear not a storm, but a weather forecast telling them the rainy season isn’t over yet. #每周来晒 and #USOctoberCPIExceedsExpectations
So next, don’t just watch what Fed officials say—also watch whether the next inflation report actually shows cooling. $AMD