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Markets got nervous again after the U.S. October CPI release.
Headline CPI rose 0.4% and core CPI rose 0.3%, both above expectations. Expectations of Fed rate hikes have risen, putting fresh pricing pressure on BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold.
But what may really matter is not this CPI reading, but the next three questions.
First, will inflation rebound further? If energy, housing, and services prices continue to rise, the Fed may have to maintain a hawkish stance.
Second, will the labor market cool? If the economy remains strong, the central bank will have more room to keep tightening policy; if employment suddenly deteriorates, its policy choices will become more complicated.
Third, where will the dollar and Treasury yields go? These two indicators directly affect global funding costs and the relative appeal of BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold.
So the most important thing now is not to bet that one particular asset must rise, but to watch how macro variables change.
BTC is waiting for liquidity, U.S. stocks are waiting for earnings, and gold is waiting for interest rates and safe-haven demand to rebalance.
Markets change every day, but investors can’t change their convictions every day. #U.S. October CPI beats expectations across the board
The next opportunity often belongs to those who are well prepared, not those who shout the loudest. $SPCX