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Has that 72692 wick been fully retraced by today?


I went through all 48 hourly candles;
$BTC fell from 75255 to 72692.6;
The 11-10 23:00 candle had 197.57 million contracts, 5.6 times the average;
It then climbed back to 74772.4 over 28 hours, up 2.86%;
Today at 04:00, it took only 21.9 million contracts to touch that high—60% of average volume
So I’m not convinced: the drop came on 5.6 times the volume, the rise on 0.6 times
Whichever side has the volume has the direction
It’s now at 73946, with ma20 at 74025, 79 points overhead
At 06:00 it dipped to 73448 and recovered to 73990, on 58.4 million contracts
I’ll only call it a reversal if it gets above 74025 and hourly volume returns to 50 million; then I’m watching 74772
If it breaks 73448, then 73188, then 72692
I’m staying out while it’s stuck between those levels, 79 points apart
(Not investment advice; trade at your own risk)
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Comment 5
VolSmile
IV wasn't mentioned; this volatility is enough to put on a few butterfly spreads.
FloorScout
It broke through on 5.6x volume and bounced back on 0.6x volume—this floor doesn’t look very stable.
RiskWillow
I review my max drawdown every day. If I’d forced trades through those 79 points today, I’d have had another half page to add to my drawdown journal, lol.
StopLossArtist
Place a tower at 74025 and another at 73448. Is the 79 point in between a monster spawn area?
StableObsessive
The monkeys are bouncing around the zoo again. I'm watching with a handful of sunflower seeds, while my position is still in the yield pool, incubating eggs.