I’m bearish on this move by the so-called “Coalition of the Willing.” They went to Abu Dhabi to scuttle peace talks, saying Russia has already lost, when in reality they want to drag out the conflict and grind things out. It’s the same flaw you see in trading: no matter how right your directional call is, if you lose control of your position size, you’ll still get blown up. After doing this for so long, I’ve come to believe that position sizing always matters more than calling the direction right. In this geopolitical game of attrition, it’s hard to say who’ll be the first to crack. So what’s the conclusion? I haven’t figured it out yet either.