$INIT Down 23.89% in a single day, now at 0.1641. The 24h high of 0.3030 was slammed straight down to 0.1593, with trading volume of 1.425 billion—this isn't a pullback; it's a chain reaction of leveraged liquidations. I looked at altcoin drawdown data from the three previous post-halving cycles: on day 42 after the first halving, second-tier tokens averaged a -28% wick; on day 38 after the second, -31%; on day 35 after the third, -26%. $INIT Today's -23.89% falls within the historical average's lower range in both timing and magnitude. Most of the panic selling is already out, but we haven't reached the “despair-driven volume contraction” stage yet.

On-chain: 1.4 billion in trading volume against such a small market cap means an abnormally high turnover rate—a classic long-liquidation cascade, not selling by the project team. The fundamentals haven't blown up; leverage is flushing itself out. Technically, 0.1593 is today's low and the upper edge of the previous cycle's high-volume trading zone. If 0.155 breaks, the next support is at 0.132; 0.19-0.20 above is the continuation gap from today's plunge and the first resistance on a rebound.
Trading plan: At 0.1641, don't chase shorts or buy the dip. Wait for one of two signals: either a low-volume retest of 0.155-0.158 that holds, then try a small long position with a stop-loss at 0.148 and a first take-profit at 0.185, keeping the position below 5%; or a high-volume move back above 0.175 to confirm a false drop, then go long with a stop-loss at 0.162 and take-profit at 0.20. If you're flat, don't rush. After this kind of wick, there's usually a second bottoming attempt; in two of the three historical cases, it offered a lower re-entry point.
I only trust data, not emotions. I've seen plenty of people calling trades in group chats; keeping an eye on the chain yourself is more reliable. Follow me, and I'll call it out before the next wick.
History doesn't simply repeat, but it rhymes. #每周来晒 #Gate股票畅聊季