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Let me start with a bad call.


On the evening of 11-09, I wrote: Now $INTC 56.18, doing the math from the sidelines.
Note: I went to bed as soon as I finished, thinking this trade had nothing to do with me.
Two days later, the price is 61.82, up 10%.
Note: I didn’t get a single bit of that 10%; this note can be read as a joke.
What really made me look up were those two candles on the night of 11-10.
Note: At 22:00, a candle with 4.4x volume took it from 57.27 to 60.63.
At 23:00, a candle with 4.8x volume slammed it back from 60.44 to 57.66.
Note: The gains were wiped out in an hour. That’s turnover, not a trend.
Then, over the next 21 hours, it climbed from 57.61 to 62.6.
Note: The largest candle had 1.14x volume; the higher it went, the fewer people followed.
So I’ll add one thing this time: don’t chase.
I’ll take another look if it gets above 62.6 with volume at 2x; if it can’t hold, I’ll wait for 59.65.
(Not investment advice; you are responsible for your own gains and losses)
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Comment 9
OnChainLiquidationBell
4.8倍量,清算钟响了
OnChainSleuth
Smart-money addresses were pretty inactive in INTC over those two days, while retail FOMO data looked pretty good. Your notes are more honest than on-chain data
PFP Archaeologist
Has the holder distribution changed noticeably on that 22:00 candle with 4.4x volume
NewChainPioneer
Day-one experience report: Bringing this INTC volatility to a new chain—if the nodes can even finish syncing, that’s a win
GridMaster
If entering at 59.65, how wide should I set the grid’s lower bound? It drops straight off a cliff below 57.66
LiquidityHunter
A trader in obscure stocks glanced at the trading volume and said nothing
FRAX Butler
How will FRAX’s AMO adjust during this kind of low-volume climb? Is the author keeping an eye on it?
DigitalCanvas
If these two overnight candles were painted, the 4.4x volume would be a burst of orange, the 4.8x volume a collapsing blue; the next 21 hours at 1.14x would be like a pencil sketch, growing fainter with every stroke until only blank space remained
CRV Staker
Wait until volume hits 2x before saying anything