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The market structure has shifted from a bearish retracement to a bullish reversal; price previously broke down to a swing low of 206.36 but has since created a higher high by surging past previous resistance to hit 229.46, indicating buyers have taken control and the short-term trend has flipped upward.
The 1-hour candles show strong momentum, with the current price action holding above key moving averages (MA5 at 223.36, MA10 at 219.18, and MA200 at 205.00), while the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover with the MACD line (0.66) above the signal line and positive histogram bars, confirming building upside momentum.
Trading plan
I plan to enter a long position on a slight pullback toward the 218-220 support zone (near the MA10 and recent breakout level) rather than chasing the current high, with a stop-loss placed below the major swing low at 206.36 and a first take-profit target near the recent high of 229.46.
I predict that after the recent sharp impulsive move, price will likely consolidate or retrace slightly to test the 218-220 area as support before continuing its upward trajectory toward the 230+ resistance level.
What trade plan I follow and why❓️
I follow a trend-following pullback strategy; I choose this because the chart shows a clear "V-shaped" recovery and a break of market structure to the upside, but buying at the very top of the current 1-hour candle (224.70) carries higher risk of a short-term pullback, so waiting for a dip offers a better risk-to-reward ratio.
When I start my trade❓️
I will start my trade when the price retraces to the 218-220 zone and shows a bullish rejection candle (like a hammer or bullish engulfing) on the 15-minute or 1-hour timeframe, confirming that the support level is holding.
The chart shows recent bullish momentum candles with small bodies and long wicks, and the current consolidation near 224.70 appears to be forming a "bull flag" or high-tight pattern; this pattern suggests a brief pause in the uptrend before a potential continuation breakout.
The setup is strongly bullish, but due to the extended move, the best play is to wait for a pullback to the 218-220 support zone to enter long, as the overall trend and indicators (MACD, moving averages) favor a continuation higher toward the 230 level.