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October U.S. CPI has once again poured cold water on global financial markets!
Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core CPI rose 0.3%, with both exceeding market expectations. More importantly, core inflation has held at 0.3% for three consecutive months, prompting markets to worry again about the risk of Fed rate hikes.
Waller had previously signaled that if core CPI reached 0.3%, he would consider supporting a larger rate hike. This latest reading landed right on that threshold.
What does this mean?
Markets had been expecting rate cuts, but now have to reconsider rate hikes. The dollar and Treasury yields may continue to strengthen, naturally putting pressure on risk assets such as BTC and tech stocks.
I believe BTC needs to be wary in the short term of a pullback caused by tighter liquidity, but that does not mean the long-term bull market thesis is over.
After all, what Bitcoin fears most is not inflation, but the market suddenly realizing that cheap money may not be coming back anytime soon.
The Fed's December meeting could become an important turning point in global asset pricing. $GER40