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The hotter-than-expected US October CPI reminded the market of one thing: rate cuts have never been something the Fed is obligated to deliver.
Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core CPI rose 0.3%, showing that price pressures remain.
The market had previously expected interest rates to gradually decline, but now has to consider the possibility of rates staying higher for longer, or even rising further.
What does this mean for investment strategies?
First, investors can no longer simply rely on looser liquidity to drive all assets higher.
Second, corporate profitability may matter more than growth stories alone.
Third, companies with stable cash flow and healthy balance sheets may be more likely to attract market attention.
BTC and gold also need to be reassessed in terms of how they perform in different interest rate environments.
I believe the market ahead won’t move in just one direction, but will enter a phase in which greater emphasis is placed on macroeconomic data and differences in asset fundamentals.
Fed policy may change, and investors need to adjust their thinking as well.
Remember one thing: In a bull market, everyone likes to tell stories; when interest rates rise, the market is quick to check the bill. $MU