#美国10月CPI全面超预期 #每周来晒 The Fed doesn’t need to “turn hawkish”; it only needs to maintain a hawkish stance.

I. There are three levels to “turning hawkish,” and the market has only priced in the first
First level: a 25-basis-point hike in December. The probability is 88.5%, already fully priced in. This isn’t turning hawkish; it’s confirmation.
Second level: a one-off 50-basis-point hike in December. The probability jumped from 0% before the release to 11.5%. This is a real “hawkish turn,” and it’s also the line Waller drew himself just hours before the data: a core monthly increase of 0.3% or higher should be considered. The result was exactly 0.3%, right on the threshold.
Third level: changing the path. The probability of cumulative hikes totaling 50 basis points by January next year has reached 59.2%. This is what the market is really repricing. Whether the neutral rate moves higher in the dot plot matters more than the size of this hike.

My view: December will most likely still bring a 25-basis-point hike. The reason isn’t just officials’ comments; there’s also a technical detail many people have overlooked—this CPI report had no year-over-year data because no price data was collected during the October 2025 government shutdown, leaving no baseline.
Without the year-over-year figure as an anchor, it’s difficult for the committee to characterize inflation with a “one-off 50-basis-point hike.” It’s not that they don’t want to; they don’t have enough evidence. So the missing data actually makes a 50-basis-point hike less likely.

II. Where are the limits of hawkishness? Watch three things

The monthly change in core PCE, in the final report before the December meeting.

Whether there will be another hike in January next year. This is a question of the path, and the real source of pressure on BTC.

Whether the statement’s definitions of “additional” and “restrictive” have changed. Changes in wording often come before changes in the numbers.

III. This time, BTC fell because of leverage, not valuation

Price-wise: it fell below 73,000, with an intraday low of 72,787; ETH fell 4.75%, SOL fell 4.9%, and ZEC fell nearly 13%.

The structure is more worth watching: 24-hour liquidations totaled $657 million, including $540 million in long positions; open interest, meanwhile, rose 5% to 341.5 billion; the total crypto market cap fell 2.93%, while trading volume rose 15.5%.

Prices down, trading volume up, open interest up—that’s a classic “longs being forcibly liquidated as new shorts enter” structure. The Fear and Greed Index is at 24, and BTC dominance is 60.4%, showing that money is taking shelter in the hardest assets rather than leaving the market.

So the characterization is clear: this is liquidation-driven, not allocation-driven.

IV. Why is BTC so sensitive to CPI? Three transmission channels

First is the discount rate. The 10-year yield broke 5%, and the 2-year yield is at 4.71%. The numerator in the valuation of long-duration assets hasn’t changed, but the denominator has become more expensive; BTC is among the “longest-duration” assets in this cycle.

Second is the dollar. The dollar index rose 0.56%. When offshore dollar liquidity tightens, BTC’s marginal buyers—the leveraged longs—are the first to pull back. BTC’s pricing power has always been in the hands of offshore dollars, not Wall Street.

Third is leverage. When longs are crowded, data becomes the trigger. It’s not that CPI is so frightening; it’s that positions are too full.

V. How to distinguish deleveraging from a loss of conviction

What happens next is completely different for these two, but they look very similar on the charts.

Signs of deleveraging: open interest drops rapidly, funding rates turn negative, the spot premium recovers, and liquidations are concentrated within one to two days. This usually ends within a week.

Signs of a loss of conviction: open interest remains stable, but spot outflows continue, ETFs see consecutive redemptions, and long-term holders begin reducing their on-chain positions. This takes months.

What we’re seeing now is the early stage of the first scenario—note, the “early” stage—because open interest is still rising, which means leverage hasn’t been fully cleared out. So don’t rush to call a bottom.

VI. My plan

I don’t predict direction; I only act when conditions are met.

Only if all three conditions are met—a daily close above 72,787, declining volume on the way down, and negative funding rates—will I scale into longs, with a stop at 71,500 and an initial target of 76,000 to 77,000.

If the daily close falls below 72,787, I’ll look at 70,000 or even 68,000. I won’t try to catch a falling knife.

Before the December 9 rate decision, total exposure will stay below 30%, and leverage below 2x.

The Fed doesn’t need to “turn hawkish”; it just needs not to turn dovish. For BTC, the real bottom isn’t “CPI peaking”; it’s “leverage being cleared out.”

Do you think this cycle is about deleveraging or a loss of conviction? Share the reasons behind your view in the comments. $BTC