#美国10月CPI全面超预期 When data and price conflict, I trust price first, but only use it to size my position

If PPI continues to come in above expectations and BTC does not break below its previous low, I will trust price more. But there is one condition: I only use price to decide whether I can act now; direction and potential upside or downside still depend on macro.

I. First, understand the marginal information in this CPI report

The market has already priced in an 88.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, while the probability of a 50-basis-point hike is only 11.5%; by January next year, the probability of cumulative rate hikes totaling 50 basis points is 59.2%.

In other words, most of the impact of the phrase “across-the-board upside surprise” has already been absorbed by prices. What was actually shaken out was positioning, not valuations: $657 million in BTC liquidations in one day, including $540 million in long positions, while open interest actually rose 5% to 341.5 billion. This is a typical “positioning event,” not a “valuation event”: leverage has not been flushed out, so the decline has been neither clean nor decisive.

So the answer to “how much more pressure is there to withstand?” does not lie in how much October CPI exceeded expectations, but in whether “another hike in January next year” will be put on the table. That is the source of the second round of pressure.

II. Why I don’t set the two against each other

Macro tells you where the ceiling is: the rate path is not over, the 10-year yield is above 5%, and the dollar is still strengthening. In this environment, BTC has no independent rally; a rebound is just a rebound, not a reversal.

Price tells you whether you can act now: if bad news fails to push prices down, it means marginal sellers are drying up. This is information about the supply of coins, reflecting who is still selling and who has already finished selling, rather than fundamental information.

The two are actually answering different questions. The real danger is using them in reverse: seeing that “it can’t fall any further” and inferring that “rate hikes are about to end.” That substitutes market positioning for macro judgment, and usually comes at a cost.

III. My actual trading plan (BTC)

Going long requires all three conditions to be met simultaneously; if even one is missing, I won’t act:

First, on the day PPI exceeds expectations, BTC’s daily close must hold above 72,787 (the previous low in this move), and the 4-hour lows must be rising.

Second, declining volume on the way down and no volume chasing on the rebound would indicate that sellers are truly exhausted, rather than being artificially held back by capital.

Third, the funding rate must turn negative or approach zero, with longs no longer crowded.

If all three are met, I’ll scale in: first tranche at 73,000 to 73,500, second tranche at 71,800 to 72,300, with a stop-loss at 71,500 (about 1.5% below the previous low), and an initial target of the structural recovery zone at 76,000 to 77,000. Leverage will not exceed 2x, and total position size will not exceed 30%.

If the daily close breaks below 72,787, then macro has won, and the target moves down to 70,000 or even 68,000. I won’t catch a falling knife; I’ll wait for a second sign of stabilization near 68,000.

IV. What about gold and U.S. stocks?

Gold: 4,000 is a psychological level, and 3,950 to 3,980 is the previous-high platform. If PPI surprises to the upside again and real yields continue to rise, gold will remain under short-term pressure; but buying around 4,020 shows that the long-term thesis remains intact. My approach is short-term bearish, long-term bullish: only a break below 4,000 coupled with continued dollar strength would count as a real warning.

U.S. stocks: The Nasdaq 100 closed at 27,740; a forward P/E of 18x is a valuation floor, not an earnings floor. A break below 27,421 (the November 10 low) points to 26,500. But the real risk for U.S. stocks is not this CPI report; it is downward revisions to 2027 earnings expectations.

Data tells you whether you should be afraid; price tells you whether you should act now.

Most of the marginal information in this CPI report has already been priced in. The real variable from here is whether PPI will put “another hike in January” on the table. So I won’t predict direction; I’ll wait for the signal: when PPI comes out, price will give the answer.

Where do you place the “previous low” yourself: 72,787 or 72,000? Let’s compare in the comments. #WCTCS9