The U.S. October CPI report comes out tonight at 21:30—let’s talk about it

The market currently expects headline CPI to rise 0.3% month over month and core CPI to rise 0.2%, both cooling from September

There’s an unusual wrinkle this time: last year’s government shutdown left October’s data missing, so the usual year-over-year inflation rate won’t be released tonight, and the market’s attention will be even more focused on the month-over-month figures

I’m personally taking a cautious view of tonight’s data: the market is still betting on a Fed rate hike in December, and some cooling in inflation is already expected. Even if core CPI comes in at the forecast 0.2%, it may be hard to turn around the weakness in risk assets

For now, $BTC is still struggling around $74k, while gold has also pulled back to around $4,090

I’m more focused on the market’s reaction after the release, especially changes in Treasury yields; if the data is favorable but BTC still can’t rally, that would be a reason to be cautious

No need to rush to a conclusion tonight—let’s see what the market decides