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What does the market dislike most? Not bad news, but something already treated as good news suddenly turning bad.
Investors currently expect US inflation to continue cooling, believing this will give the Federal Reserve room to cut rates. But if the next batch of data comes in unexpectedly high, the market may quickly reassess its expectations.
US stocks may be the first to feel the impact.
If inflation rebounds, investors may worry that interest rates will stay higher for longer, with high-valuation tech stocks especially vulnerable. After all, growth stock valuations depend heavily on future earnings expectations, and rising financing costs are not good news.
Next is gold. Gold may be supported by safe-haven demand, but if the dollar and real interest rates strengthen at the same time, gold prices may also come under pressure.
The dollar may receive some support, as the market could reassess the US interest rate advantage.
However, this is not a simple, fixed formula. If rising inflation is accompanied by a weakening economy, the market reaction could be completely different.
So investors should not focus only on a single inflation figure, but also assess it alongside employment, consumption, and economic growth.
What the market is truly concerned about going forward is inflation picking up again while economic growth slows.
If this happens, the Federal Reserve will face more complicated policy choices.
The market can bet on rate cuts in advance, but don't mistake a bet for the outcome. After all, Wall Street's greatest skill is telling a story one day and changing the script the next. #美国10月CPI即将公布 $NAS100