$BTC This price action looks a lot like the market before past escalations in Middle East tensions—not in terms of price, but in that numb feeling of “the news hasn’t landed yet, so the market is pretending nothing’s happening.” For example, around the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict in April 2024, BTC first traded sideways near $70,000, while trading volume during the Asian session dropped noticeably. Once the news broke, it quickly pulled back to around $61,000, then recovered as sentiment settled. The early stages of the Israel-Hamas conflict in October 2023 were similar: prices dropped, then bounced back. What really hurts is often not the first candle, but chasing a move when liquidity is thinnest.

The usual strikes in the Middle East are still ongoing, and Trump has also said he wants to adjust immigration policy, so macro uncertainty hasn’t eased. The Asian session’s chronic lack of liquidity isn’t going away: during many periods, trading volume and order book depth are both lower than in the U.S. and European sessions. The slightest hint of trouble can send prices to irrational levels, making slippage and wicks more likely. Those who chase the move often end up holding the bag.

RSI, whether overbought or oversold, is basically a thermometer for sentiment. When the situation is unclear, oversold doesn’t mean a bottom is in, and overbought doesn’t mean a top is in. If RSI drops below 30 while the news keeps getting worse, prices can remain depressed; if it rises above 70 while oil and risk assets are both gaining, it can stay overbought. You need the news to confirm a reversal signal. Looking at the indicator alone makes it easy to mistake an “extreme in sentiment” for a “turning point in price.”

What are you seeing on your end? I’m watching how Middle East news moves in tandem with oil prices. For example, when Brent crude briefly jumps 3%–5%, it’s more reassuring to see how that shifts risk appetite in BTC and U.S. stock futures than to look at candlesticks alone.