Crypto Market Preview Today | CPI Released Tonight, BTC Holds Its Breath at the $75,000 Mark

【Market Snapshot】
As of midday today, Bitcoin is trading in a narrow range near $75,000 (approximately $74,600–$75,800), after rebounding from an intraday low of $73,667 yesterday. BTC has closed lower for 5 consecutive weeks, and the Fear and Greed Index is at 29, in the fear zone. U.S. stocks surged overnight (Nasdaq +2.74%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +6.85%), but BTC failed to follow, showing weak correlation during its rebound and continued investor caution.

【Today's Main Event: U.S. October CPI at 21:30】
This is the last inflation report before the December policy meeting. Markets expect both headline and core CPI to rise 0.3% month over month, a marked slowdown from September's 0.6%. The current probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December is about 80%; the data will directly drive rate hike expectations and the direction of risk assets.

【Key Times Today】
13:30 TSMC releases October sales
21:30 U.S. October CPI (year-over-year data will not be released this time)
22:00 ECB Executive Board member attends digital euro hearing
All day Russia-U.S.-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi
After market close: CoreWeave earnings

【Key Levels】
Support: First support at $74,400; if the weekly close falls below it, next watch $72,550, followed by $69,000 (200-week moving average).
Resistance: First resistance at $76,040; a breakout would put $78,250 (50-week moving average) in view, with further resistance at $80,360.
Technical indicators: RSI around 47.8, slightly below neutral but not yet oversold; ADX around 21.9, indicating weak trend strength, with direction awaiting the data.

【Scenario Analysis】
Scenario 1 (CPI ≤0.2%, inflation cools): Rate hike expectations ease, and BTC may rebound, first testing $76,040, then potentially $78,250.
Scenario 2 (CPI = 0.3%, in line with expectations): Rate hike expectations hold steady, and BTC is likely to trade sideways in the $74,400–$76,040 range.
Scenario 3 (CPI ≥0.4%, inflation runs hot): December rate hike concerns reignite, and BTC may come under renewed pressure. Watch whether $74,400 holds; if it breaks, next watch $72,550.

【Conclusion】
Caution is widespread ahead of the data release, with volatility likely to concentrate after 21:30. Treat $74,400 as the short-term bull-bear dividing line, manage position sizes and leverage, and wait for the CPI release before following the market's direction.