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Gold Medal Finance | Tonight’s Highlights:
On the eve of CPI, Fed officials speak in a flurry
1️⃣ Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks tonight at 23:00. The Fed has 9 officials giving 12 speeches this week, its busiest round of comments before the December policy meeting2️⃣ U.S. October CPI is released tomorrow night, with markets expecting both headline and core month-over-month inflation to rise 0.3%. This is the last inflation reading before the December 8-9 policy meeting
3️⃣ Interest rate futures show the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December has reached 78%. After nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, the market is largely convinced the Fed will act this time
4️⃣ Oil prices plunged more than 16% last week, their biggest weekly drop since 2020; WTI continued falling today to $89.5. Trump said the Iran conflict would not escalate, easing pressure from energy inflation
5️⃣ Gold rebounded above $4090 today, but rate hike expectations remain a ceiling overhead; this move is a recovery, not a reversal
In a nutshell: Strong data, falling oil prices—the inflation story is not settled yet. Tomorrow night’s CPI will be the real judge.
⚠️ The above is for sharing market information only and does not constitute any investment advice.