Inflation Refuses to Cool! If CPI Blows Past Expectations Again, Will the Fed Be Forced to Hike Rates in December?

The last thing the Fed wants to see right now may be inflation rising again.
The market had previously expected prices to gradually cool, creating room for a future shift in monetary policy. But if October CPI once again comes in above expectations, that outlook may need to be revised.
Core inflation is especially important: if housing, services, and wage-related costs remain stubborn, it suggests inflationary pressure is not just due to fluctuations in energy prices.
This puts the Fed in a dilemma: if it doesn't hike rates, it risks inflation spiraling out of control again; if it keeps hiking, it could put pressure on economic growth.
The market has already priced in a high probability of a December rate hike. If this data remains hot, the bond market and the dollar may react first.
But one detail should not be overlooked: CPI is only one of the Fed's policy references; its actual policy target also involves the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.
So, one CPI report is not enough to determine the final outcome.
Still, for investors, tonight is already exciting enough.
After all, inflation can be unreasonable, but account balances have to face reality. #每周来晒 and #美国10月CPI即将公布 $MU