$TSMC

The overarching structure on this 1H timeframe has just experienced a notable shift from a heavy bearish downtrend into a sharp V-shaped recovery. After aggressively breaking down to a swing low of 2,020.00, the price has printed a decisive higher low and is now challenging previous structural resistance, indicating that short-term sellers have exhausted their momentum and buyers are stepping in with force.

K Line Analysis: Looking at the recent price action, we see a strong bullish impulse leg followed by a consolidation phase. The current candle is a bullish continuation candle, pushing up +4.68% to 2,235.00, testing the overhead supply zone. Notably, price is currently trading above the short-term MAs (MA5 at 2,254.00 and MA10 at 2,199.50), though it is still battling the medium-term MA30 (2,260.66) and MA60 (2,330.75), which act as dynamic overhead resistance.

Trading Plan: My primary objective is to capitalize on this momentum while managing the risk of a pullback from the moving average cluster. I will look for a breakout and successful retest of the MA30 level (2,260 area) to confirm bullish continuation, or alternatively, wait for a healthy pullback to the MA10/previous breakout zone near 2,190–2,200 to initiate a long position. My stop-loss will be placed strictly below the recent swing low (2,020) to invalidate the setup if the bearish trend resumes.

My Prediction: Based on the MACD histogram transitioning from red to green and the DIF line crossing up, my prediction is that the price will attempt to push higher toward the 2,290–2,324 resistance zone. However, because the price is currently entering a dense cluster of MAs, I expect some choppy consolidation or a slight rejection before a clean breakout occurs.

What Trade Plan I Follow and Why: I am following a Momentum/Breakout-Retest strategy. I choose this plan because the market has shown a violent rejection of lower prices (the long lower wick at 2,020) and is displaying strong relative strength. The MACD indicator is confirming this shift in momentum, making a long bias technically favorable, but I am opting for a retest entry rather than chasing the green candle to improve my risk-to-reward ratio against the moving average resistance.

When I Start My Trade: I will start my trade either on a confirmed 1H close above the MA30 (2,260) which holds on the next candle, or on a dip toward the 2,200–2,210 area where the MA10 sits, provided it shows a bullish rejection candle.

Candlestick Pattern: The recent price action shows a classic "Morning Star" style reversal setup (though spanning multiple candles) starting from the 2,020 low. The current active candle is a solid, full-bodied green candle with very little upper wick, indicating strong intraday buying pressure.

Final Verdict: Moderately Bullish. The short-term setup favors buyers due to the strong MACD divergence and V-shaped recovery, but caution is warranted because the price is running directly into a "web" of moving averages (MA30 through MA300) and night trading carries lower liquidity risks. Protect capital with tight stops and wait for confirmation.#RedBullDoublePodiumInBrazil