BTC probes lower again; don’t focus only on the rebound

As of 14:30 on November 9, BTC was around 74,318, down about 0.7% on the day, with a high of 75,599 and a low of 74,281. The 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages remain bearish, and MACD is below the zero line; the 4-hour RSI is around 28, already in oversold territory. But oversold conditions only mean a rebound could happen at any time—they do not mean the trend has already reversed.

On the news front, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw total net outflows of about $1.2817 billion last week, signaling cautious flows. U.S. CPI is due at 21:30 on November 10, and sharp price wicks could become more pronounced around the release. In the medium term, compliant funding channels remain in place, but for prices to regain strength, reclaiming and holding above 80,000 matters more than rushing to call a bottom.

Short-term support: 74,280, 73,510, 71,870.
Medium-term support: 70,000, 67,650, 62,280.
Short-term resistance: 74,850, 75,600, 76,200.
Medium-term resistance: 80,000, 81,200, 84,900.

On volatility, the daily ATR is around 2,224, or about 3.0% of the price; the 1-hour ATR is around 457. If stop-losses are still set for calm market conditions, normal volatility could easily take you out.

My take: If 74,280 gives way again, the decline could extend to 73,510; holding that level and reclaiming 75,600 would create a chance to retest 76,200. The real medium-term recovery line is 80,000. Until it is reclaimed, treat rebounds as recovery moves rather than rushing to call them a new uptrend. When markets are tough to sit through, slowing down and waiting for confirmation often feels better than rushing to guess the direction. #BTC $BTC #美国10月CPI即将公布