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The year-end rally hasn’t really begun, but macro markets are already heating up.
U.S. October CPI will be released on November 10 at 21:30, and investors are watching to see whether year-over-year inflation reaches or exceeds the market expectation of 3.7%.
If inflation remains stubborn, the market may further increase its bets on a Fed rate hike in December. A stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields could become the main forces weighing on risk assets.
This means BTC and U.S. stocks may face short-term correction pressure, while gold could also be affected by rising real interest rates.
But if CPI cools significantly, the market may start pricing in easing expectations again, potentially bringing a rebound for risk assets.
Note that the market already has high expectations for a December rate hike, so even an in-line reading may not mean a smooth ride.
The most dangerous scenario is inflation coming in above expectations while employment data remains strong. #每周来晒 and #美国10月CPI即将公布
With inflation refusing to cool and the labor market refusing to cool, it will be difficult for the Fed to easily turn dovish.
Will the year-end market bring a shower of red envelopes or a big volatility gift pack? This CPI report could offer important clues. $NVDA