Everyone in the group chat is calling for a rally, but I’m choosing to go against the grain. That’s not to say you always have to oppose the consensus. But when sentiment is overwhelmingly one-sided, it’s worth asking one more question: How much good news is already priced in? Lately, people have been talking about Treasury yields the way they talked about BTC before the halving, with everyone assuming they’ll move sideways. But the roadmap is right there: making progress and delivering on time are two different things. BTC went through a similar “nothing’s happening” phase before the halving. In the months leading up to the April 2024 halving, prices moved sideways at times between March and April as the market waited for catalysts and narratives. Then ETF flows and expectations for macro interest rates shifted, and volatility quickly returned. Treasury yields are no different. Moving sideways doesn’t mean nothing is happening; it just means the data hasn’t yet reached the point where it resolves the disagreement.

First, let’s look at the “roadmap.” The Fed’s dot plot, the path of easing inflation, the Treasury’s quarterly borrowing plans, and economic data trends are all there to see. But “progressing as planned” and “delivering on time” have never been the same thing. For example, in October 2023, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5%, its highest level since 2007; over the following months, it fell back below 4%. On the surface, it looked like range-bound trading, but monthly moves during that period often exceeded 30 basis points. Then in April 2024, after CPI data was released, the 10-year yield quickly climbed from around 4.2% to around 4.7%. Plenty of people had been calling for sideways movement, but it took only a few days for the market to really move. Nonfarm payrolls, CPI, PCE, retail sales, FOMC decisions, Treasury auctions—any one of them could be a trigger. Yields moving sideways doesn’t mean the market isn’t pricing things in; it just means pricing has shifted from “direction” to “waiting.”

Even if you’ve been sitting back and earning passive income, you still need to look up at the macro picture now and then. Money market funds, short-term bonds, high-dividend stocks, and REITs may all look like “hold them and collect,” but they’re all affected by the path of interest rates. From 2022 to 2023, the average yield on U.S. money market funds rose from close to 0.1% to around 5%. Many people earned solid risk-free returns simply by managing their cash. But if expectations for rate cuts move forward or get pushed back, those returns and asset valuations will be repriced. High-dividend stocks and REITs are even more sensitive: valuations come under pressure when rates rise, and these assets can attract renewed interest when rates fall. Passive doesn’t mean ignoring the macro picture, and sitting back doesn’t mean you don’t need to watch where things are headed.

So my core view hasn’t changed: When everyone in the group chat is calling for a rally, I choose to go against the grain. And when Treasury yields are being treated as range-bound, I’d rather keep an eye on roadmap progress and the timing of economic data releases. Sideways movement is an outcome, not a reason. If you see it differently, tell me why.