$HOT Up 23.66% in 24 hours, with trading volume hitting $133 million—that’s the classic “sentiment leads” signal seen before altseason began in each of the previous three halving cycles. Don’t rush to chase the rally; I’m not telling you to buy at the top. First, let’s look at the historical pattern.

In the last cycle, small-cap tokens were the first to stir 5–7 months after the halving. Established IoT tokens like HOT staged surprise rallies during BTC’s sideways periods. HOT has now climbed from 0.0003 to 0.0005 before pulling back to 0.0004. It broke above its previous high on heavy daily volume but left an upper wick—almost identical to the launch pattern in November 2020: first a high-volume rally away from the bottom, then a pullback to confirm. I haven’t seen on-chain data showing concentrated selling by whales; net inflows to exchanges are actually declining, suggesting tokens are being locked up.
Technically, 0.00038–0.0004 is the strong support zone for this pullback, corresponding to the 4-hour EMA20. The previous high at 0.00052 is resistance. If it breaks through on volume, the next target is 0.00065. But note that 24-hour trading volume of $133 million is enormous for a token with HOT’s market cap. The short-term move is overheated, so a shakeout is inevitable.
Trading plan: Don’t chase at the current price of 0.0004. Wait for a pullback to 0.00038–0.00039 and enter in two batches, keeping the position below 5% of your total holdings. Set a stop-loss at 0.00034 (a break below the previous low would invalidate the structure), with a first take-profit at 0.00052 and a second at 0.00065. If it breaks above 0.00052 on heavy volume, add a position on the breakout and move the stop-loss up.
I got burned by a false breakout on HOT last year, so this time I’m only looking for confirmation on a pullback, not betting on a one-way move. Follow if you want, but don’t go all in.
History doesn’t simply repeat itself, but it rhymes. #每周来晒 #Gate股票畅聊季