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The U.S. October CPI data is scheduled for release on Nov 10 at 21:30 (UTC+8), with the market expecting inflation to come in at 3.7% YoY.
The main question for market participants is how this data will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy in December. A reading hotter than 3.7% would suggest that inflation remains sticky, potentially increasing the probability of another rate hike or at least keeping rates elevated for a longer period.
Looking at the current market structures for key assets ahead of this high-impact event:
Bitcoin ($BTC )
Currently priced near $75,100, the technical outlook is mixed. While the weekly trend remains bullish, short-term momentum is bearish, leading to an overall neutral positioning. Key levels to monitor are support at $73,000 and resistance at $76,000. A higher CPI print could test lower support levels, while a softer print may provide the impetus to challenge resistance.
Gold (XAUT)
Gold is trading around $4,110, also displaying a neutral overall technical stance. Interestingly, the short-term (4h) trend is bullish, but the longer weekly trend is bearish. With support at $4,040 and resistance at $4,135, gold's reaction will depend on how the data affects the U.S. dollar and real yields. Persistent inflation typically supports gold, but the prospect of sustained high interest rates can act as a counterweight.
Equities (Stocks)
For stock markets, the CPI data directly impacts valuation models and discount rates. A hotter-than-expected reading often applies downward pressure on equities, particularly in growth sectors, as it implies higher borrowing costs and tighter liquidity conditions.
Both the crypto and gold technical charts indicate a "Neutral" overall consensus, reflecting a market that is largely in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the data release.
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