#美国10月CPI即将公布 Is U.S. CPI set to stir things up again tomorrow night?

This isn't just an ordinary data release. On November 6, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 165k, far exceeding expectations, and bets on a December rate hike briefly surged to around 80%.

Even more troubling is oil. Middle East tensions keep flaring up, and energy costs remain high. U.S. CPI rose to 3.7% year over year in September, and the market expects it to climb further to 3.9% in October.

Put simply, people aren't worried that inflation hasn't fallen—they're worried the Fed will keep tightening.

This kind of situation feels all too familiar!

In November 2022, CPI fell to 7.7%, and BTC rose about 6.5% in the hour after the release.

In May 2024, inflation cooled, and BTC rebounded about 2.6% in an hour.

But October 14 this year was brutal: CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, 0.1 percentage points above expectations. BTC fell about 1.4% in the hour after the release, and Treasury yields surged too.

So what happens tomorrow night?

If the data comes in below expectations, $BTC could get a chance to rebound. First, see if it can reclaim 76k, then consider 78k.

But if inflation exceeds expectations again, watch out for 74k. If it breaks below that level and the rebound can't reclaim it, don't rush to buy the dip.

There's also U.S. PPI on Friday, so this won't be the only inflation-related news.

The worst case is a sharp spike right after the data comes out, only for you to chase it and realize it was a false breakout.

Tomorrow night at 21:30, do you think BTC will rally on the CPI, or test the lows again?#每周来晒