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Gate TW Stocks
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Launch
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Rate Hike Bets Near 80%—Is This Getting Out of Hand?
CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in December has reached 80.5%. With the current rate at 3.75%-4.00%, market expectations have jumped straight to 4.00%-4.25%.
Rate-cut hopes are dashed, and liquidity is tightening.
But for crypto, the final stages of a rate-hiking cycle often mean: fiat gets more expensive → risk aversion rises → Bitcoin’s “inflation hedge narrative” gets a new lease on life.
The key isn’t the rate hike itself, but whether rates peak “after this one” and whether a global liquidity turning point is near.
Army Outlook:
The Fed tightens one last time. What signal will we see when it pulls the blade back?