#美国10月CPI即将公布 #WCTCS9 On the Eve of CPI: We’ll Know Tomorrow at 21:30—My Market Forecast and Three-Step Strategy

Tomorrow (Tuesday, November 10) at 21:30, U.S. October CPI will be released.

The market has already priced in about a 77% chance of a rate hike in December—once the data is out, that will either be confirmed or disproven. This post covers my forecast and what I plan to do.

【My Forecast: The Base Case Is “In Line With Expectations,” With Volatility at Either Extreme】

September CPI rose 0.6% month over month (the biggest increase in five months) and 3.7% year over year; core CPI rose 0.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year, with energy as the main driver. Oil prices remained elevated in October, so the odds of a “significant cooling” are low; the data is more likely to come in “in line with expectations” or “slightly above expectations.”

Based on this, my base-case view is:

Core CPI rises 0.2%-0.3% month over month: The chance of a rate hike stays at 75%-80%, the market reaction is muted, and attention shifts to the December meeting;

Core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher month over month, and the year-over-year rate rises: A rate hike is all but certain, putting pressure on risk assets;

Core CPI falls to 0.2% or lower month over month: Rate-hike bets ease, and risk assets rebound.

Volatility ranking: BTC > Nasdaq > gold.

【Why Gold Is the Most “Muted”】

Gold’s direction depends on how the market interprets the data: If it reads as “higher interest rates,” gold prices come under pressure; if it reads as “inflation out of control,” safe-haven buying kicks in. Add structural support from central bank gold purchases, and gold is clearly less sensitive to CPI than the other two.

【My Three-Step Strategy】

Step one, before the data release: Don’t guess the direction or use leverage. With 77% already priced in, an “in-line” reading offers almost no excess returns, so the risk-reward of betting one way doesn’t make sense.

Step two, after the data release: Let the first wave of emotion play out, wait 15-30 minutes, and focus on two figures—the month-over-month core CPI and the change in the probability of a December rate hike—before judging the direction.

Step three, respond based on the scenario:

Above expectations: Bearish on risk assets, with BTC and the Nasdaq bearing the most pressure; don’t try to catch the bottom against the trend;

In line with expectations: Maintain a range-bound outlook and wait for signals from the December meeting;

Significant cooling: Risk assets rebound, with BTC showing the most upside, but don’t chase—the rebound’s sustainability depends on subsequent funding rates.

【Watchlist】

One, month-over-month core CPI—the true inflation pressure excluding energy;
Two, rent and core goods—whether inflation is getting “sticky” depends on them;
Three, the change in the probability of a December rate hike after the data release (77% is the baseline anchor);
Four, the 2-year Treasury yield and BTC funding rate.

Do you expect inflation to cool or come in above expectations? Let’s discuss in the comments.