November 9 · Monday · BTC/ETH Mi Shen Strategy

【Morning Wick Review】
Before the daily and weekly candles closed at 8 a.m. Beijing time this morning, BTC plunged about 2.8% in 15 minutes, hitting a low of 73,420 before quickly recovering above 75,300; ETH hit a low of 2,079.78, briefly falling even further than BTC. About $800 million in positions were liquidated market-wide over 4 hours, with longs accounting for more than 90%; ETH liquidations totaled about $360 million, exceeding BTC's roughly $230 million.

I look at this wick from four angles:

Position: Strategy's average cost (about 75,451) and the 50-week moving average (about 75,560) are both clustered around 75,542, where long stops are most concentrated. Once the price breaks below it, cascading liquidations can amplify the move.
Timing: Thin weekend liquidity, combined with the daily and weekly closes approaching, makes stop-hunting wicks more likely. This is a common occurrence, not a definitive conclusion.
Funds: ETFs saw $1.28 billion in net outflows last week, and spot buying was weak. This move looks more like leveraged longs being flushed out than panic selling in spot markets.
Sentiment: More news emerged about the AI sector over the weekend, weighing on risk assets (media-reported connection, unconfirmed).

This dip landed right at the upper edge of the “71,400–74,400 next major range” I marked on my chart earlier, then quickly recovered. So my label is: successful wick, awaiting confirmation. The key confirmation is whether the price can hold above 75,542 after reclaiming it; if it cannot, treat it as a rebound, not a reversal.

【News】
Jensen Huang: On November 8, he acknowledged in a letter to NVIDIA employees that he had been unfaithful to his wife and apologized. The board launched an independent investigation, and he will remain CEO. Media also reported that the chairs of three U.S. House committees jointly asked him to attend a closed-door briefing on November 18, citing links between related individuals and a company suspected of helping evade export controls. The board said there is currently no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised.
What the market really cares about is not his private life, but governance uncertainty, congressional scrutiny, and NVIDIA's Q3 earnings report on November 18 (Beijing time). NVIDIA closed at $186.64 last Friday, down about 10.7% for the week. The U.S. semiconductor index rose about 4.2% on Friday, and U.S. stock futures were strong in early Asian trading on Monday, but sentiment around the AI sector could remain volatile after the news.

【Technical Analysis】
BTC (2-hour): Current price around 75,336, below 75,542. Three key targets: 76,668, 77,271, 78,507.
The sequence is: first reclaim and hold above 75,542 to open the way to 76,668; after holding there, look to 77,271; a genuine trend recovery means 78,500 returns to the upper half of the large range. Until then, treat any move as a rebound.
To the downside, first watch this wick's low of 73,420 and 74,400; if those fail, look to 73,004, 72,280, and 71,439.

ETH (4-hour): Current price around 2,152; watch 2,092–2,139 intraday. Three key targets: 2,233, 2,268, 2,299. The key level remains 2,330; only above it can we talk about a trend reversal. To the downside, watch 2,092, 2,055, and 2,038.

【Tonight Through This Week】(Beijing time)
Monday: Fed's Goolsbee speaks.
Tuesday 11/10 21:30: U.S. October CPI; after strong nonfarm payrolls, this is the most important variable.
Wednesday 11/11: U.S. bond market closed, liquidity likely thin.
11/18: Jensen Huang's closed-door congressional briefing, NVIDIA Q3 earnings report (early hours Beijing time).
11/19 03:00: Fed meeting minutes; 12/10 03:00: FOMC.

After the wick, watch whether it can hold; don't predict the direction—

⚠️ The above is only my personal compilation of market information and views and does not constitute investment advice. The choice is always yours. $BTC