Bitcoin’s outlook for this week: 72,500 is not the bottom; I’m more inclined to expect another test of 71,000–71,400.

The Jiazi piece projected 73k based on a 10% drop from 81,490. This morning, spot hit a low of 73,510, already close to that level. But my view is not that “the target is almost here, so the decline is over.” Last week closed around 74,851, and 77,500 has been decisively lost; the bears have yet to give up control.
The Start of Winter ushered in the Ji-Hai month, when Hai water is in season. The Twelve Monthly Hexagrams move from the Bo hexagram in the Xu month to the Kun hexagram in the Hai month: Bo has one yang line nearly extinguished, while Kun has six pure yin lines. We have not yet reached the Fu hexagram in the Zi month, when one yang line returns. Based on this Five Elements interpretation, I still expect the bearish trend to continue and do not view a rebound after a sharp drop as a trend reversal.
Following the original piece’s use of Ji earth to interpret Bitcoin, earth overcomes water, and water represents wealth; but strong wealth does not mean prices must rise, and strong water alone is not enough to conclude that prices must fall. The month’s element suggests a bearish bias, while the weekly close below 77,500 is the verifiable basis right now.
My main scenario this week is a rejection at resistance followed by another break to the downside. Initial rebound resistance is at 76,200–76,400, followed by 77,100–77,500. If price cannot reclaim that range, I’m more inclined to expect another test of 73,500, with 71,000–71,400 in view if it breaks.
This range isn’t an arbitrary lower target: 71,000 was the lower end of my original November projection; a 1.272 extension of last week’s drop from around 81,200 to 73,500 also projects to around 71,400. The two levels are close, but neither is a guaranteed price target.
72,500 is just a level to watch along the way, not confirmation that the decline has ended. In the longer-term downside projection, 62,000 remains on the table, but I’m not claiming it will be reached this week.
If the daily candle closes back above 77,500 and holds that level on a retest, this bearish path will need to be reassessed; I won’t stubbornly stick to it after the market has already risen substantially.
Last week, I projected downside to 76,300 and 75,000, but the actual drop went deeper, so I underestimated the downside room. To be clear this time: I don’t think 73,500 has been proven to be the bottom; the main risk to watch this week is a further drop toward 71,000.
Traditional Chinese metaphysics, personal view only, for reference and not investment advice.