#美国10月CPI即将公布 #WCTCS9 If October CPI comes in above expectations, the market will further scale back rate-cut expectations, but this time the more important question is whether there will be a rate hike in December. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in nearly an 80% chance of a December rate hike.

What’s special about this data
Only month-over-month figures will be released: The government shutdown last October left no price base for comparison, so no official year-over-year figure will be published. The focus is entirely on the month-over-month numbers.
Market expectations: Headline CPI is expected to rise about 0.3% month over month, while core CPI is expected to rise about 0.2%–0.3%[6].
Previous reading: Headline CPI rose 0.6% month over month in September.

What happens if it comes in above expectations
Rate-hike bets strengthen: A stronger reading would reinforce expectations of monetary tightening, making a December rate hike more likely.
Rate-cut bets fade: The market is already rarely talking about rate cuts; a higher-than-expected reading would mainly make a rate hike more certain.
Limited scale: Even if there is a hike, it will most likely be a one-time adjustment of 25 basis points, not multiple consecutive hikes.

Impact on several asset classes
U.S. stocks: High-valuation tech stocks would face the most pressure, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 could retest their lows.
Bitcoin: When the dollar and Treasury yields strengthen, funding costs rise, and BTC is likely to come under pressure as well.
Gold: It may face short-term pressure from the dollar and Treasury yields; but if stocks plunge, safe-haven buying could also support gold prices.
Only a lower-than-expected reading would give the market room to breathe. ING believes that unless CPI comes in significantly below expectations, expectations for a December rate hike will essentially be set before the meeting.