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What has the market been talking about most lately? Rate cuts! It seems that as soon as the Fed cuts rates, BTC will take off, U.S. stocks will hit new highs, and gold will get a boost too.
But reality is not that simple.
U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year over year in September, and inflationary pressures have not completely disappeared. With October’s data due tonight, investors should focus on monthly core CPI and whether components such as housing and services have continued to cool.
If core inflation comes in moderate, the market may once again raise its expectations for future easing. The dollar and Treasury yields could come under pressure, giving BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold a chance to rebound.
But if core inflation proves stubborn, the market may adjust its rate-cut expectations again. Treasury yields could rise, putting pressure on growth-stock valuations, while Bitcoin could also see an outflow of funds.
More interestingly, the Fed will not change policy immediately based on a single CPI report. It also has to take employment, wages, consumption, and other inflation indicators into account.
So tonight’s data is more like a report card than a final verdict.
The cruelest thing about investing is that you think you’re waiting for rate cuts, when in reality the market may have already priced in expectations for them!$MU