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Crude Oil Outlook for Next Week

Crude oil plunged last week amid hopes that U.S.-Iran tensions would ease, falling more than $15 over the week and officially forming a double-top pattern. For medium-term trading, the focus should now be on short positions, but after the sharp short-term decline, a rebound is also likely, so the short-term focus should be on long positions:

I. Technical Analysis

After last week's decline, the double-top pattern has been confirmed in the broader trend. On the daily chart, after rebounding with a bullish candle on Thursday, prices pulled back on lower volume Friday. Short-term rebound momentum remains, and a further rise cannot be ruled out. On the weekly chart, there is clear support around the MA20 and MA30 moving averages, which also favors a further rebound.

II. Macro Factors

1. U.S.-Iran tensions: Many people saw the Democrats' victory and assumed U.S.-Iran tensions would ease, or even that the war would end hastily. That's wrong! The Democrats and Republicans do have major differences on some issues, but they are aligned on containing Iran. The two parties are likely to use force to accelerate the end of the war, and the possibility of a ground offensive cannot be ruled out. So from this perspective, a short-term rebound in oil prices looks fairly certain.

2. OPEC+ is not stepping in, and supply is recovering: On November 1, seven core members agreed to keep December production targets at September levels (a combined approximately 31 million barrels per day), with no further cuts—most members are already producing below their targets because of the war. More importantly, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are restoring exports to prewar levels, and Saudi Arabia has even cut its official selling price for Asia to a six-year low. So there is also some basis for a medium-term decline.

III. Key Support and Resistance Levels for Next Week

First support: 96.67 (Friday's intraday low), the first line of defense for short-term bulls.

Core support: 93.40 (last week's low), alongside 94.62, last Wednesday's closing price, forming a dense support zone. This level is the dividing line for whether the “war premium has been fully unwound”—hold it, and prices remain range-bound; break below it, and the next level to watch is 90.

First resistance: The 100 round-number level. Round numbers are never just psychological levels; options and stop-loss orders are clustered here.

Strong resistance: 103.60–104.80, the overhead supply zone after Monday's gap-up last week. Without a fresh geopolitical escalation, a rebound to this area will likely be pushed back down.

IV. Trading Approach

Directionally, I favor “selling the rebound” rather than “chasing longs.” But we must acknowledge that geopolitical tail risks are providing a floor, so short positions should be small and have strict stop losses; don't add to losing positions as you might when trading a trend.

Boundaries for range trading:

A rebound to the 100.5–103.6 area is a place to reduce longs and also to test short positions;

A pullback to around 94 is a place to bet on a short-term rebound, with a stop loss below 93.4;

93.4 is this week's dividing line between bulls and bears. If prices close below it, the overall outlook should be revised in a bearish direction.

Three rules:

1. Don't chase rallies or sell off when geopolitical news breaks—most of this kind of news is released unilaterally; wait for confirmation (at the government or company level) before acting;

2. Don't make a heavily leveraged bet on a one-way move. The market is currently driven by “narratives + news,” not by supply and demand;

3. Pay attention to contract rollovers. Brent has already rolled from December to January, so always check contract months in cross-week data. The 13.32% and 16.42% figures this week are due to contract differences.$XBRUSD