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At 14:00, that candle had 1,110 lots, 30% of average volume. I checked twice.


· Position cost: stop-loss at 520.02, a $9.36 distance from 529.38.
· Reward cost: only 9.22 to 538.6, for odds of 0.98.
· Time cost: until Monday 22:30, the price won’t be determined by the market for thirty-two hours.
· Sweep cost: 1,110 lots move it $0.32; 11,541 lots move it $0.08.
· Trend cost: even after thirty-eight hours, it only recovered 9.22; it hasn’t touched 537 since 538.6.
With all five costs laid out, the gain is less than the loss. No need to run the numbers twice.
$MSFT 24-hour trading volume is $470k, and the pool is as thin as paper.
Friday’s opening candle had a $9.85 lower wick. It was bought back within two hours, then sold off all the way.
I’m staying out; I’ll reconsider if it gets above 530.61 by Monday 22:30.
(Not investment advice; trade at your own risk)
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