70% of altcoins have fallen below the 200-day moving average! Is buying the dip now a bargain or catching a falling knife?

There’s a saying in crypto: In a bull market, buying anything makes you look like a genius; in a bear market, buying anything makes you look like a philanthropist!
The altcoin market is once again testing investors’ conviction.
Data from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost shows that about 70% of Binance altcoins have now fallen below the 200-day moving average, compared with only about 10% in early October.
Meanwhile, the total altcoin market cap has shrunk by about $200 billion from its previous peak, and nearly two-thirds of the gains from August to September have been wiped out.
Some have already started panic-selling, while others are quietly opening their trading apps to buy the dip.
Who’s right?
Technically, the widespread fall below the 200-day moving average points to a weak long-term trend, and the market still needs time to recover.
But from another perspective, after a deep correction across many coins, the valuations and market sentiment of some assets may gradually enter a range worth watching.
Keep in mind, a steep drop doesn’t mean an immediate rebound, and it certainly doesn’t mean all altcoins will recover together.
I’m more inclined to watch three signals: whether the share of coins below the moving average declines, whether trading volume improves, and whether capital starts flowing back into the altcoin market.
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