Expectations for a Fed rate hike in December suddenly surge. Is there still a chance of a year-end Bitcoin bull market?

The year-end rally hasn’t officially begun, but macro markets are already building suspense.
The U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, far exceeding market expectations. The strong jobs data has revived concerns that the Fed may continue tightening monetary policy, with the probability of a December rate hike reportedly rising to 77.7%.
For investors hoping for improved liquidity by year-end, this is undoubtedly a signal that deserves serious attention.
If the Fed continues to take a hawkish stance, the dollar could gain support, while risk assets may come under some pressure.
Bitcoin investors naturally won’t be able to relax.
But we can’t focus only on the jobs data. U.S. consumer confidence remains weak, and persistently high prices continue to erode purchasing power, showing that the economy is still under pressure.
The combination of strong employment and weak consumption makes the Fed’s policy choices more complicated.
Going forward, if inflation continues to cool, rate hike expectations may be revised, giving markets a chance to recover sentiment.
Conversely, if prices prove stubborn again, investors should prepare for high interest rates to persist for longer.
In my view, what matters most now isn’t the 77.7% figure itself, but whether future data can change the market’s view of the Fed.
After all, the numbers can change every day; what really drives the market is investors’ confidence in the future.
#10月非农数据聚焦