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165,000 jobs stun markets! Fed December rate hike probability hits 77.7%—rate-cut hopes dashed?
Investors had just gotten ready to pop champagne for a year-end rally when U.S. nonfarm payrolls suddenly poured cold water on things.
The U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, well above market expectations. The strong labor market has renewed concerns that the Fed may continue to maintain its tight policy.
Even more striking, the probability of a December rate hike reportedly rose to 77.7%.
What does this mean? Investors who had been expecting monetary policy to turn dovish may now need to revise their script.
But it’s not all good news for the U.S. economy. While the labor market is holding up well, high prices continue to erode consumers’ purchasing power, and consumer confidence remains weak.
This creates an interesting contradiction: economic data looks pretty strong, but ordinary consumers’ wallets are getting thinner.
For financial markets, strong nonfarm payrolls aren’t necessarily good news. The stronger employment is, the more likely the Fed is to worry about persistent inflationary pressure and keep interest rates high for longer.
Risk assets such as Bitcoin and tech stocks could also come under valuation pressure.
The key things to watch next are inflation data and comments from Fed officials.
After all, what the market fears most isn’t a rate hike itself, but thinking rate hikes are over, only for the Fed to say: Not so fast—we’ve got another episode!$MU #10月非农数据聚焦