#Ahr999跌入抄底区间 Ahr999 is a commonly used valuation indicator in the Bitcoin community, introduced in 2018 by Jiu Shen, who goes by the online handle “ahr999.” It is also called the “Jiu Shen Index.” It is used to judge whether the current price is expensive or cheap.

Formula: (current price ÷ 200-day DCA cost) × (current price ÷ exponential growth valuation).
200-day DCA cost: the average cost of buying a fixed amount each day over the past 200 days, calculated using the geometric mean.
Exponential growth valuation: the long-term theoretical price fitted to the number of days since Bitcoin’s creation, representing the center of its long-term value.
When both benchmarks are below the actual price, the index tends to be low; when both are above the actual price, the index tends to be high.

How to interpret the values
Below 0.45: Extremely undervalued, considered a bottom-buying zone; historical bear market bottoms have all been here[3].
0.45–1.2: Fairly valued, suitable for sticking with DCA.
Above 1.2: Starting to look expensive; caution is advised.
Above 5: Bubble territory, commonly seen near historical highs. This indicator is only suitable as a reference for long-term DCA. It is based on historical data and cannot predict sudden shocks such as interest rate hikes or regulatory action, so it is of little use for short-term trading.
Now that it has fallen below 0.45, Bitcoin’s price is very low, presenting an opportunity for long-term positioning. But this does not mean the bear market correction is necessarily over, nor does it mean prices will rise immediately.

Why this is considered an opportunity
Rare occurrence: Historically, only about 8.5% of trading days have been below 0.45—fewer than one day in ten.
Bottoms have all been here: At the bear market bottoms in 2015, late 2018, March 2020, and late 2022, the indicator fell below 0.45.
Suitable for gradual buying: Historical backtests show that buying in installments in this range has been more profitable than continuously using DCA most of the time.

Why a bottom is not yet confirmed
The indicator lags: It uses the 200-day DCA cost and a long-term trend line, so the price falls first and the indicator follows.
It only reflects valuation: It cannot predict sudden shocks such as interest rate hikes or problems at exchanges.
It may fall below the threshold repeatedly: The indicator can move above and below 0.45 several times within a few days, and prices may continue to test lower levels. So the more prudent approach is to treat it as a “cheap zone” and buy in installments with spare cash, rather than investing everything at once. To judge whether the correction is over, also watch whether trading volume has contracted and whether the price can hold above the previous low.#WCTCS9