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What does the Bitcoin market fear most? Not price volatility, but a lack of sufficiently strong buying support during a rally.
Recently, the premium index has remained negative for 44 consecutive days, indicating that Bitcoin prices on U.S. trading markets have consistently been weaker than on other platforms.
This signal is worth watching because the U.S. market has many institutional investors and professional traders.
A sustained negative premium may mean that buying demand in the U.S. market is relatively weak.
But this is not an indicator that can predict price movements on its own.
For example, stronger buying may emerge in other parts of the world, and short-term price differences may exist between exchanges. Even with a negative U.S. premium, Bitcoin is not necessarily about to fall.
Investors should also monitor spot ETF flows, trading volume, stablecoin supply, and leverage in the derivatives market.
After all, Bitcoin is not a company’s stock, and its prospects cannot be judged based on a single financial indicator.
A negative premium for 44 days is cause for caution, but the market’s real answer still needs to be confirmed by more data.$MU